Hawke's Bay's weather an "evolution not a revolution" heading into New Year
Hawke's Bay's weather between now and the New Year will be an "evolution not a revolution," says NIWA principal scientist Chris Brandolino.
Brandolino says there will be little to no rain and the temperature will "warm-up" over the next seven-to-10-days. However, "it will be very much an evolution not a revolution".
But regardless, it will be a well-needed end to the year and start of 2021.
"We’ve had a period of cool and somewhat unsettled weather over the past few days with temperatures reaching near 20 degrees for a maximum in Hawke's Bay.
"As we get into New Year's Eve, it'll warm up and for a good chunk of next week starting with Tuesday and Wednesday, it will be quite warm. There will be no mistake that it's summer that's for sure.
"And by early next week, I think the word very warm to hot would be an appropriate way to describe the temperature, with figures in the upper twenties," Brandolino said.
While the region as a whole "should be relatively dry," Brandolino says inland Hawke's Bay towards the central plateau could have some localised heavy downpours on Saturday and even Sunday.
Those camping or tramping during this time "need to be mindful" of heavy downpours and thunderstorms which will have a meaningful impact.
While there's a "pretty good chance that will happen", Hawke's Bay "proper" should be spared of any meaningful rain. And, even if it were to occur, the trend will still be "warmth and dryness" beyond this weekend.
The provisional data for the month up until December 28 shows Hawke's Bay has had near-normal to below-normal rainfall and near-average to above-average temperatures. That is, however, dependent on the exact location within the region, Brandolino says.
NIWA's yearly summary, which includes December will be released later next month.
Federated Farmers Hawke's Bay president Jim Galloway said last month made a "hang of a difference" with "really good" rainfall. It has meant farmers have been able to replenish stores of silage depleted during the midst of the drought.
"We've had two maybe three months of average or above-average rainfall in the past darn near 18 months to two years in a lot of areas of Hawke's Bay.
"So it's been on a knife-edge for a long time and still, up until November, everyone was really still on watch because it was looking pretty dry or like it could dry out very quickly with a little bit of wind or no rain," he said.
Despite the rain, wind, and little to no rain since last month has meant the region is "quite patchy". Galloway says he has only recorded about 14mm this month.
"We do expect most of Hawke's Bay to be heading to a bit of a dryer patch from now on so it's not too unusual. Most of the country sort of out towards the east, the coast and in central Heretaunga and that normally get dry this time of year but some west of Highway 50 are getting a little bit dry again and they were the ones that got hit last year really badly because we just never had the rain."
