National’s Katie Nimon leading in race for Napier seat, according to new poll
story updated
A new Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll has National's Katie Nimon leading the race for the Napier seat with 37 per cent of voters compared to Labour's Mark Hutchinson at 28 per cent.
The poll has New Zealand First’s Laurie Turnbull third with four per cent of the all votes, while three per cent of all respondents said they would vote for a Te Pāti Māori candidate despite there being no declared candidates for the party in Napier.
The remaining candidates are on 2% or less. However, 18% of voters remain undecided and 6% refused to say who they would vote for.
The poll of 400 respondents was conducted on Sunday, 20 August 2023 and shows that many voters – 18 per cent – undecided. The results were announced at a special televised debate tonight between the main candidates at the Puketapu Hotel. The candidates there were Nimon, Hutchinson, who initially declined to attend, and Turnbull. ACT’s Pawel Milewski did not participate, but ACT was represented by the Tukituki candidate Rob Douglas. The debate was organised by the Taxpayers Union.
The poll has the winning margin for Nimon increasing to 48 percent when only taking decided voters into account. Hutchinson comes in at 37 percent, with Turnbull at five per cent and the candidate-less Te Pati Māori at four per cent.
In the poll, the National Party leads the party vote with 25 per cent of all respondents, followed by the labour of 20 per cent, ACT at 12 per cent, NZ First at five per cent and Te Pati Māori at three per cent.
The Napier seat is up for grabs this election with incumbent MP and former Cabinet Minister Stuart Nash deciding not to run for election after a few mishaps led to his demotion in the party. His replacement, Hutchinson, was his long-term campaign manager.
With regard to the latest poll, New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Callum Purves, said: “This poll is snapshot rather than a prediction but, if repeated on election day, would mean a convincing win for National’s Katie Nimon. Having been held by Labour’s Stuart Nash since 2014, these numbers would have the Napier electorate turning blue for the first time since Chris Tremain was the local National Party MP.”
“Katie Nimon has managed to pull some voters away from the Labour candidate with 13% of those who voted for Stuart Nash in 2020 opting for Nimon this time around compared with just 1% of those who voted for Katie Nimon in 2020 opting to vote for the new Labour candidate, Mark Hutchinson.”
“But with 24% of voters still either undecided or refusing to say how they intend to vote, there is still plenty of time for both candidates to make an impression and the result is far from a certainty.”
In reaction to the poll, Nimon told Hawke’s Bay App that “it’s great to see that the feedback we're getting at the door is translating to the polls”.
“People want to see National get New Zealand back on track. A lot of the undecided voters I’ve spoken to say they know they’re not voting for Labour but want to hear more about what National has to offer, which is why I’m sharing our plans to reduce the cost of living, restore law and order and improve our schools and healthcare with as many people as I can over the next few weeks.”
Hutchinson said in a statement: "It's great to see people take such an interest in the Napier electorate but my focus every day between now and the election will be to continue introducing myself to as many voters as I can, hearing their concerns and aspirations and highlighting the contrast between Labour's plans and what National-ACT has in store."
"I'm confident that once people focus on the choice in front of them, and understand what a Luxon-Seymour Government would mean for schools, hospitals and the climate, we'll have a good Election Day here in Napier."
Turnbull told Hawke’s Bay App tonight: “There are still a large number of undecided voters for me to target and I am going to Wairoa tomorrow to spread the NZ First message. I am meeting with the Mayor Craig Little and putting up hoarding as well.”
The full results of the poll are published at https://assets.nationbuilder.com/taxpayers/pages/2472/attachments/original/1692667518/Napier_Poll_Results_Aug_2023.pdf?1692667518.
The Taxpayers Union said the poll was conducted in accordance with the Research
Association New Zealand Code of Practice and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social
Research. The poll consisted of a random selection of 5,000 phone numbers of people who live in Napier. Four hundred agreed to participate. The Taxpayers Union says the results are weighted to reflect the overall electorate voting population in terms of gender and age.
Based on this sample of 400 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50 per cent) is +/- 4.9%, at the 95 per cent confidence level.
